How will British people react to the neglect and paralysis that come with Brexit?

It was entirely predictable on the morning of 27th June 2016 that government in Britain would be entering a period of paralysis that would last for years. The programme of legislation would be cut to the bone and attention to social policy would be all but abandoned while ministers and Parliament wrestled with an illogical democratic decision brought about by an unnecessary vote to leave the European Union.

Sure enough, even before we become free from the alleged “government from Brussels” we seem to have managed to liberate ourselves from sound and coherent government at home.

What I didn’t foresee when the Referendum result was announced was that it would lead to the paralysis of the entire political system. Yet here we are with the two main political parties so obsessed with their future prospects and their individual identities that concern for the people they purport to serve is all but forgotten.

The Labour Party – with its pretence that leaving the EU is not an issue, and with the internal argument about antisemitism a proxy for the ongoing row over its leadership – is entirely complicit. Its sad demise means, of course, that the weakest Conservative government in 40 years has no opposition. But to be positive about Labour, at least it doesn’t have the capacity to make a dire situation even worse.

I’ll deal later with the contribution that Tories are making, or not making, to running Britain. But looking back at where we’ve come from the writing was already on the wall in 2016. The leave-Europe vote was won not entirely by Euro-sceptics. They had help from a sizeable minority of people who didn’t care much either way, but who wanted to give a bit of a kicking to a neglectful inward-looking government. This was a mistake by voters, if an understandable one.

David Cameron, if he believed in anything, thought we should remain in the European Union. But his cynical tactic of holding a vote he was sure he would win involved such total disregard for the public that he hardly bothered to assemble a coherent argument let alone a credible remain campaign. He gambled the future of the country in pursuit of the illusory goal of Conservative Party unity. And thanks to his arrogance and complacency he lost. He deserved more than a bit of a kicking.

So we are set on a course to regain Britain’s independent sovereignty (as part of global economy where ministers can’t even work out a way to tax Amazon equitably), to choose our own trading partners (while the US, our main target market, jacks up tariffs on our steel), and to reclaim our borders (while the NHS flounders without the home-grown staff it needs).

These details are horribly familiar to anyone who is exposed even briefly to the news media. What has been less obvious till now is how serious the abrogation of responsibility for managing the country is becoming.

           “I wouldn’t put the cabinet in charge of a model railway in my attic”

Every important government decision of any kind is now delayed, then watered down, or just parked.

Social housing? Fine words but no government investment. General house building? A few PR-led schemes which actually put prices up, but no prospect of meeting needs.

Gove’s wonderful-sounding environmental policies? Let’s start with being nice to kittens and puppies. A third Heathrow runway? Definitely yes to that, but let’s leave room for doubt about whether it will ever be built.

The NHS at 70? No fresh policies, but a promise of just enough money perhaps to save it from total disaster, and possibly just enough if we’re lucky to maintain it in a state of perpetual crisis. And the long long awaited and desperately needed reforms to the social care system? Ooh, that’s a hard one. Best not to mention it.

Think of any area of national concern and there’s a reason why it can’t be dealt with.

If this pathetic policy and legislative performance makes us feel a little neglected, how do we feel about the day to day delivery? Cameron, who achieved nothing except admirable first steps in changes to the law on marriage, was criticised in his time for incompetence. But he ran the country with Orwellian efficiency compared with Theresa May’s miserable team.

Having seen what they can do with industrial relations in the rail industry and national timetable changes I personally wouldn’t put the cabinet in charge of a model railway in my attic. If I wanted to foster a population of helpless unskilled misfits dependent on drugs and destined to continue their lives of crime after release I’d send them to a privatised prison with government advisors on site to watch over them. If I wanted to squander billions of pounds on public infrastructure projects that will be late or never finished I’d pump the cash into an overstretched failing private business which only ever submitted the lowest tenders.

Even efforts to reduce net migration, a major political priority, are self-evidently inadequate to meet the government’s targets. The policy now depends on admirable measures like making European residents feel so unwelcome that they decide to go home, or impoverishing British citizens who have West Indian parents, or denying access to oversees performers for the Edinburgh Festival.

            “Ministers have been distracted  by  the biggest upheaval since the dissolution of the monasteries”

It seemed obvious from the start that leaving the EU could be a bonanza for the civil service (necessarily reversing years of Tory spending cuts to limit its size). Otherwise, surely it would be a recipe for chaos while the current workforce is diverted into sorting out Brexit, leaving no one in the office to run the country? It’s no surprise that we’ve seen an increase in the number of senior civil servants. But new jobs for front-line staff, for poor pen-pushers and keyboard operators who actually deliver programmes and services are somewhat harder to detect so far. And now we have official reassurance that all will be well, even if we leave Europe without a formal deal. Yes, and black is white, and pigs will be taking part in next year’s Farnborough Air Show.

Quite clearly our government is not governing, either for ideological reasons or because ministers think we can manage without it (perhaps they are the same thing). I’ve no firm evidence that it’s because they have been devoting their energies instead to arguing among themselves about Brexit, though it did take over a year for them to agree on their negotiating position. But it is incontestable that ministers have been distracted from the proper business of government by the biggest upheaval, apart from war, since Henry VIII dissolved the monasteries.

(Exaggeration? I’m entirely not sure. But I do want to make this point as strongly as possible.)

What is even more concerning is that this is only the start of the process of removing ourselves from Europe. There are many more years ahead when ministers will not have the time or resources to govern us properly while they sort out the legislative and administrative challenges of going it alone. Then if we bring into the equation the admittedly remote possibility of the main parties fragmenting and realigning, the stagnation that would result from that could feel like life in the Middle Ages.

It doesn’t much matter how an aging white middle class man like me feels about this future. But if our citizens felt neglected enough two years ago to turn their backs on the ideal of a peaceful, prosperous, united Europe, they are hardly going to take kindly to the realisation that the government is now too busy or just too self-obsessed to look after their interests. We’ve seen what happened in the US. Will a bit of a kicking now be enough? What abomination might people be prepared to vote for next?

Perhaps this prospect should be considered, along with the other more immediate arguments, by everyone who can’t yet bring themselves to support another vote on EU membership.